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September 29, 2014

Officiating significantly sways NFL games

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 2:18 PM

The Chicago vs. Green Bay game this week (9/28/14 Week 4, 2014 Season) was one of the most aggravating I’ve ever seen. Primarily, it was due to injuries to Chicago’s defense and the officiating. The officiating was atrocious. Below is a breakdown of all the penalties and other bad calls with a somewhat objective scoring system. Of course it’s ultimately subjective for the QS, but the scores of 0 and 3 are pretty objective. Anyway, by my calculations, Chicago ended with a bad call index against of 39 to Green Bay’s 8. By this I mean Chicago was almost 5 times more affected by bad calls than Green Bay. Or you could say that Chicago had about 13 calls (or cumulative calls) against them that were potentially game changing/possession changing/score changing and Green Bay had 3. Factoring in the 3 turnovers Chicago did have, that’s still 13 to 6. In a game with zero punts by either team (only the second time in NFL history that has occurred in a game!), it’s remarkably easy to see that the officials significantly swayed the game, even ignoring things like home crowd, momentum, confidence, and other soft intangibles.

For reference, I also calculated scores for the Minnesota vs. Atlanta game since I watched that too and it seemed like a typical game with a few bad calls, but mostly clean. That score was Minnesota 3 and Atlanta 12. That’s 1 bad call for Minnesota, and 4 for Atlanta. Fairly close and the game was pretty well called. Though I cannot backup the claim that this game was average, if we pretend it is, then Chicago had almost twice as many bad calls go against them than Minnesota, Atlanta, and Green Bay combined. Remember, these are weighted, so they count bad calls, not just penalties.

To prove to Green Bay fans that this is not entirely prejudiced, I checked out how the scores looked for that infamous Seattle vs. Green Bay game in 2012 with the replacement refs and the hideously blown call to end the game and give Seattle the win. Even without weighting that call heavier than normal (there’s an argument to be made that it was a doubly bad call since it should have been pass interference against the offense and it’s very questionable that the offensive player actually caught the touchdown), Green Bay still racked up 45 bad call points against to Seattle’s 24. In that game it was so bad back and forth the NFL immediately settled with the regular refs so they could return from the lockout.

So Green Bay fans, take your win, but remember it can always go against you. And please don’t ever talk about that Seattle game again – just think about how it made you feel and you’ll know how the rest of the NFL felt about calls that went Brett Favre’s way.

 

 

Penalty Affect Score Breakdown:

PAS = 0: outcome did not affect the game at all (penalty was denied, half ended, etc)

PAS = 1: outcome did not alter possession, downs, etc (penalty just added on, e.g., illegal touching on punt, adds 5 yards, but doesn’t change possession, doesn’t force rekick)

PAS = 2: outcome changed circumstances of possessions, downs, etc (2nd and 4, offsides penalty gives offense first down)

PAS = 3: outcome drastically changed circumstances of possessions, downs, etc (pass interference on 2nd down or later, automatic first downs on 3rd down, etc)

 

Questionable-ness Score Breakdown:

QS = 0 if it was the correct call

QS = 1 if fans for the team affected reasonably disagree with call/too close to call

QS = 2 if fans for team not affected are willing to agree it was somewhat questionable

QS = 3 if the call was blatantly wrong

(Lawyer scoring = 0 if proved beyond a reasonable doubt; = 1 if proved by preponderance of evidence; = 2 if proven wrong by preponderance of evidence; = 3 if proven wrong beyond a reasonable doubt)

 

1st Quarter:

GB 10:04 Penalty on GB – Illegal Use of Hands after Cutler scrambled for first down. PAS = 1. QS: 3

CHI 9:32 Penalty CHI – Illegal Substitution. PAS = 0. QS = 0

GB 0:45 Penalty on GB – Unnecessary Roughness after Cutler scrambled for first down. PAS = 1. QS = 2

 

2nd Quarter:

GB 15:00 Penalty on GB – Pass Interference. PAS = 3. QS = 0.

CHI 11:26 Penalty on CHI – Unnecessary Roughness. PAS = 3. QS = 3.

GB 6:44 Penalty on GB – Illegal Substitution. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

GB 1:10 Penalty on GB – Holding. PAS = 3. QS = 0.

CHI 0:09 Penalty on CHI – Unnecessary Roughness. PAS = 1. QS = 3.

CHI 0:09 Replay Upheld. PAS = 3. QS = 3.

 

3rd Quarter:

CHI 12:56 Penalty on CHI – 12 On-Field. PAS 1. QS = 0.

GB 12:55 Penalty on GB – Holding. PAS = 1. QS = 0

GB 11:49 Penalty on GB – Holding. PAS = 3. QS = 0.

 

4th Quarter

CHI 15:00 Penalty on CHI – Holding. PAS = 3. QS = 3.

CHI 12:06 Interception by GB. PAS = 3. QS = 3.

GB 6:58 Penalty on GB – Holding. PAS = 3. QS = 1.

GB 6:05 Penalty on GB – Holding. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

 

1st:

CHI – 0*0 = 0

GB – 1*3 + 1*2 = 5

 

2nd:

CHI – 3*3 + 1*3 + 3*3 = 21

GB – 3*0 + 1*0 + 3*0 = 0

 

3rd:

CHI – 1*0 = 0

GB – 1*0 + 3*0 = 0

 

4th:

CHI – 3*3 + 3*3 = 18

GB – 3*1 + 1*0 = 3

 

Total:

CHI – 39

GB – 8

 

 

 

 

 

1st Quarter:

ATL 14:13 Penalty on ATL – Holding, declined. PAS = 0. QS = 0.

 

2nd Quarter:

MIN 14:15 Penalty on MIN – Illegal Contact. PAS = 2 (unclear if Ryan made the line to gain). QS = 1.

MIN 11:14 Penalty on MIN – Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PAS = 0. QS = 0.

ATL 11:02 Penalty on ATL – Holding. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

ATL 10:41 Penalty on ATL – Unnecessary Roughness. PAS = 1. QS = 2.

ATL 0:27 Touchdown MIN, but play reversed. PAS = 3. Original QS = 3, Replay QS = 0.

 

3rd Quarter:

MIN 14:53 Penalty on MIN – False Start. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

MIN 6:49 Penalty on Min – False Start. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

ATL 5:03 Penalty on ATL – Holding. PAS = 3. QS = 2.

MIN 4:40 Penalty on MIN – Holding. PAS = 1. QS = 1.

MIN 2:50 Penalty on MIN – Holding. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

 

4th Quarter:

ATL 14:37 Penalty on ATL – Holding, declined. PAS = 0. QS = 0.

ATL 8:36 Penalty on ATL – Holding. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

MIN 4:24 Penalty on MIN – False Start. PAS = 1. QS = 0.

ATL 3:38 Penalty on ATL – Pass Interference. PAS = 2. QS = 2.

 

1st:

MIN – 0

ATL – 0*0 = 0

 

2nd:

MIN – 2*1 + 0*0 = 2

ATL – 1*0 + 1*2 + 3*0(3) = 2

 

3rd:

MIN – 1*0 + 1*0 + 1*1 + 1*0 = 1

ATL – 3*2 = 6

 

4th:

MIN – 1*0 = 0

ATL – 0*0 + 1*0 + 2*2 = 4

 

Total:

MIN – 3

ATL – 12

 

 

2012 Week 3:

GB vs. SEA

 

SEA – 1*0 + 1*0 + 1*0 + 3*2 + 0*0 + 1*0 + 3*0 + 2*1 + 3*0 + 0*0 + 0*0 + 3*1 + 3*3 + 3*1 + 1*0 + 1*1

GB – 2*1 + 1*0 + 1*0 + 0*0 + 3*2 + 1*0 + 1*1 + 3*3 + 3*1 + 3*3 + 3*2 + 3*3

SEA – 24

GB – 45

 

 

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